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As California prepares its strategy to reach a globally ambitious climate target for 2030, on the road to deep decarbonization by mid-century, retrospective analysis of past planning exercises can shed light on the successes and challenges encountered so far during implementation. The state appears to be on track to reach its 2020 emissions target—an outcome many considered wildly ambitious when it was first proposed more than a decade ago. While this signals real progress in reducing emissions, the state’s policies are not solely responsible for the reductions observed to date. Other factors have played an important role, most notably the largest recession in a generation following the global financial crisis, which contributed to lowering emissions. More recently, a major drought limited the availability of low-carbon hydropower resources and the unexpected closure of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) removed one of the largest zero-carbon energy resources from the state’s energy mix. Each of these events is an example of important developments that are difficult to predict in advance, but nevertheless have shaped the state’s actual emissions trajectory, demonstrating the deep uncertainty inherent to long-term forecasting. We assess the experience of California’s climate policies to date for the economy as a whole and in two key sectors, electricity and transportation. The decomposition analyses we present offer insights into what has and has not worked in the past, and also represent tools that can help track progress going forward and adaptively manage policy strategies when issues arise.
Presenters: Michael Mastrandrea, Mason Inman, and Danny Cullenward
Michael Mastrandrea, Mason Inman, and Danny Cullenward (2017), Assessing progress towards California’s 2020 climate target. Near Zero Working Paper.
CARB (2008) Climate Change Scoping Plan: A framework for change. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/adopted_scoping_plan.pdf
CARB (2014) First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan: Building on the Framework. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2013_update/first_update_climate_change_scoping_plan.pdf
CARB (2017) The 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan Update: The Proposed Strategy for Achieving California's 2030 Greenhouse Gas Target. https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2030sp_pp_final.pdf