Stanford University

ESS Wed Seminar: Hurricane Hazards and Risk in a Changing Climate BY Ning Lin, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University

When:
Wednesday, Jan 23, 2019 12:30 PM
Where:
Y2E2, Room #111
Audience:
Faculty/Staff, Students
Sponsor:
Department of Earth System Science

Hurricanes, with their strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, cause much damage and loss of life worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing hurricane activity due to climate change. Here we present a framework of modeling hurricane hazards and risk in a changing climate. First, we introduce a new probabilistic hurricane model that can be used to generate large numbers of synthetic storms with physically correlated characteristics under observed or projected climate conditions. Second, we discuss about hurricane wind, rainfall, and surge hazard modeling and the coupling with the hurricane model to estimate hazard probabilities in a changing climate. Then, we discuss about the development of hurricane risk mitigation strategies, concerning the existence of deep uncertainties in climate science and the benefit of continuous learning and updating.

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