Artificial intelligence provides new evidence our planet will cross the global warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius within 10 to 15 years. Even with low emissions, we could see 2 C of warming. But a future with less warming remains within reach. (Source: Stanford News)

Stanford and local experts discuss ways to mitigate risk to communities and infrastructure amid dramatic swings between flood and drought.

“We're seeing all around the world that heat records are being broken, and we're seeing the impacts of those severe heat events, whether it's in agriculture, in our food system, water resources, electricity generation, ecosystems, both on land and in rivers and streams, as well as in the ocean from marine heatwaves,” says Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh. 

When the right atmospheric factors come together to generate heavy precipitation, there is more water available to fall from the clouds than there had been before greenhouse-gas emissions began warming the planet, explains Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

"In order to be resilient to climate change now and in the future, its going to require updating all those sophisticated systems that we have put in place because the frequency of severe heat, how hot it gets is different now and it will be even more different in the future," says Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh.

Our built world has historically been designed around a predictable climate, and that era is over. “The real question is, what will it take to design and build infrastructure to protect against flooding in a changing climate?” says Noah Diffenbaugh. “Our assumptions are obsolete.”

Since 1900, Earth's average air temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius. The odds of a record heat event or extreme heat day have doubled or tripled, says Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh. “These types of conditions are increasing, it’s not just your imagination.”

"We're starting the season in a severe drought heading into the warm part of the year, and we know that the kinds of severe heat waves that have really amplified fire risk in recent years are much more likely now than they were previously in California's history," says Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh. 

Stanford scholars Krishna Rao, Alexandra Konings and Noah Diffenbaugh used satellite data to track vegetation dryness patterns over time and identify wildfire vulnerabilities in the West. 

Rapidly growing communities in the American West’s forests and shrublands are nestled in zones where local soil and plant traits amplify the effect of climate change on wildfire hazards and lead to bigger burns.

Noah Diffenbaugh comments on the sudden wet trend in the California drought: “deficits have been so pronounced through so much of the state that it will take more than one normal year to overcome, and we don’t know how this year will ultimately play out. That said, it’s a very encouraging start."

Aditi Shedshadri, Noah Diffenbaugh, Newsha Ajami and other California scientists share research-based insights about climate, water and more.

Helping to show the public the effects of global warming, Noah Diffenbaugh and other attribution scientists link climate change to the nuanced impacts of extreme weather events in affected communities.

Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh and Gabrielle Wong-Parodi are interviewed in a segment about a unique partnership in California that uses behavioral science and cultural awareness in climate studies to help communities cope with extreme weather.

A new machine learning approach helps scientists understand why extreme precipitation days in the Midwest are becoming more frequent. It could also help scientists better predict how these and other extreme weather events will change in the future.

Noah Diffenbaugh discussed the UN climate report with Fox News starting at [01:00]. "Impacts of climate change are already happening, but depending on human behavior and decarbonizing, we could lessen these impacts," he said. 

Higher temperatures attributed to climate change caused payouts from the nation’s biggest farm support program to increase by $27 billion between 1991 and 2017, according to new estimates from Stanford researchers. Costs are likely to rise even further with the growing intensity and frequency of heat waves and other severe weather events.

Governor Newsom met with scientists and climate change experts including Diffenbaugh to examine how the state can accelerate progress toward climate targets.

Noah Diffenbaugh and Chris Field explain how July 4th fireworks could increase the risk of wildfires. 

"There is a 'confluence of conditions' that contribute to wildfires, but the drought persisting throughout California has made many residents concerned about what the arid conditions will mean for the next spate of fires," said Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh. 

“So many different types of extremes we know are increasing in frequency or intensity as a result of global warming, even the ones that don’t include temperature directly,” said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

In an address to Congress, President Joe Biden pitched a wide-ranging initiative called the American Jobs Plan. Stanford researchers discuss how and why climate change resilience is central to the initiative.

A collection of research and insights from Stanford experts who are revealing the stakes of emission cuts, enabling better carbon accounting, predicting the consequences of future emission pathways and mapping out viable solutions.

On March 12, Noah Diffenbaugh testified to the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space & Technology about the science behind climate change.

Research conducted by Noah Diffenbaugh and Frances Davenport found that flood damage in the U.S. totaled $75 billion over the past three decades.

“This shows that there is real economic value in avoiding higher levels of global warming,” said Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh. “That’s not a political statement. That’s a factual statement about costs."

Research by Frances Davenport, Noah Diffenbaugh  and Marshall Burke shows that over the past three decades, the U.S. has had nearly $75 billion in damage from floods fueled by the climate crisis. 

Flooding has caused hundreds of billions of dollars in damage in the U.S. over the past three decades. Researchers found that 36 percent of the costs of flooding in the U.S. from 1988 to 2017 were a result of intensifying precipitation, consistent with predictions of global warming.

“The more global warming we get, the more we can expect these damages to increase – and reductions (in emissions) will have value in terms of avoided costs,” said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

“Unless global emissions are curbed, the trajectory we’re on as a civilization will likely lead to greater than 3 degrees [Celsius],” said Stanford's Noah Diffenbaugh. Work to mitigate the looming effects of climate change is unifying Stockton, California.

“We have clear evidence that not only California has warmed, but that California is now in a new climate that is both warmer overall and is much more likely to experience unprecedented hot conditions,” said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

"We're in a 'once in our history' experiment observing the succession of these forests. They're growing back in a new climate. It's yet to be seen how that unfolds," said climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

What happens with La Niña heavily determines what the water year will look like, said Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh. "It's not just bad luck. There are configurations that tend to tip the odds towards more dry conditions,” he said.

“It’s not an obvious thing to wrap your head around. It’s a little counterintuitive to think about droughts over the ocean, because it’s wet,” Julio Herrera Estrada said about recent research co-authored with Noah Diffenbaugh.

“We’re certainly in a drought-risk posture statewide at the moment,” said Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh. “Having the odds tip toward a warm, dry winter suggest the potential for deepening drought conditions.”

“The addition of more 'fire ready' days have stemmed from just a one degree rise in global temperatures, and have resulted in some of the worst wildfires in history,” says Stanford climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

A study by Julio Herrera-Estrada and Noah Diffenbaugh reveals that landfalling droughts, which develop over the ocean and end up on land, are significantly larger and more intense than droughts that develop over land, and are linked to large weather patterns over the ocean. 

A study by Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke found that in the past 50 years warming had slowed economic growth in those parts of the world which have emitted the least carbon, perhaps by as much as 25 percent.

Researchers have identified a new type of “landfalling drought” that originates over the ocean before traveling onto land, and which can cause larger, drier conditions than other droughts.

Unusual lightning strikes sparked the massive wildfires burning across California. Stanford climate and wildfire experts discuss extreme weather’s role in current and future wildfires, as well as ways to combat the trend toward bigger, more intense conflagrations.

Researchers hypothesize outcomes of the pandemic’s unprecedented socioeconomic disruption, and outline research priorities for advancing our understanding of humans’ impact on the environment.

Noah Diffenbaugh discusses his experience corresponding with Energy Department officials about climate science language used in his federally funded research.

A new study finds that autumn days with extreme fire weather have more than doubled in California since the early 1980s due to climate change.

For decades, engineers and planners have not been properly integrating the dynamic effects of climate change in their risk simulations, says Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh.

Analysis shows global warming is intensifying the occurrence of unprecedented hot spells and downpours faster than predicted by historical trends. New approaches for incorporating global warming into extreme weather analysis could improve global risk management.

Days after completing a formal fact-checking review, Facebook removed an ad containing misinformation about Australia's deadly wildfires. Noah Diffenbaugh explains how climate change elevates wildfire risk.   

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh is co-leading a new committee with the goal of finding ways for different disciplines to work together to accelerate solutions to environmental issues. 

Melting Arctic ice sheets may be the primary cause of extreme weather around the globe. The most immediate impacts are felt in the Arctic, says Noah Diffenbaugh, but there is strong evidence of impacts on conditions experienced in California.

By analyzing more than two decades of data in the western U.S., scientists have shown that flood sizes increase exponentially as a higher fraction of precipitation falls as rain, offering insight into how flood risks may change in a warming world with less snow.

Severe wildfire conditions from heat and drought can’t be reversed and will increase if temperatures continue to warm, but different policies dealing with how to manage land vulnerable to wildfires can help reduce the risk, says Noah Diffenbaugh.

"The long-term warming ... elevates wildfire risk. And that is exactly what we’re seeing in Australia right now," says Noah Diffenbaugh.

"The fact that the influence of global warming can now be seen in the daily weather around the world ... is another clear sign of how strong the signal of climate change has become," says Noah Diffenbaugh.

“Humans are really good at dealing with a variety of different conditions,” Noah Diffenbaugh said. “What climate change is doing is changing which conditions occur where.”

New research shows rains that occur after a hurricane has weakened may be more intense than when the storm is at its strongest.

“Even without knowing what the current level of greenhouse gas concentrations would be, the climate models predicted the evolution of global temperature quite well,” says Noah Diffenbaugh. “We have one planet Earth, so we can’t conduct controlled experiments on the actual climate system."

“We have a clear understanding, based on the fundamental physics of Planet Earth, that stabilizing the global climate system at any global mean temperature – including the UN Paris target – will require reaching net zero global emissions,” said Noah Diffenbaugh.

“We’ve learned in the last several years that not only is global warming already occurring, but that we are already experiencing the impacts,” says Noah Diffenbaugh.

Noah Diffenbaugh comments on the potential impact of warm water in the Pacific Ocean.

“The growing environment is likely to be different 30 years from now in different regions,” says Noah Diffenbaugh. “But it’s an open question how growers and vintners respond to that.”

A hundred years ago, some California droughts were “hot” or “cool." There’s been a dramatic shift in the past couple of decades, though, as demonstrated in research led by Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh.

"Objective rigorous analysis shows that global warming has increased the odds of extreme precipitation events in this region of the world," says Stanford Earth climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh.

Research by Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh and colleagues examined how the conditions needed for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to develop are projected to change in climate models. 

Research led by Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh projects that some of the environments conducive to severe weather will occur more often, but it's unclear if that means more tornadoes.

Diffenbaugh testified before the U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis on May 23, explaining the scientific realities of climate change and its impacts on the U.S.

Alumna Deepti Singh, ESS PhD '15, an assistant professor at Washington State University, has been named to the 2019 Grist 50! for her innovative solutions to the biggest challenges that face our globe.

Noah Diffenbaugh discusses how climate change has exacerbated global inequality, and how we can stop that vicious cycle.

We get the rising temperatures and higher sea levels, but economic inequality from global warming? Yes, say scientists. Noah Diffenbaugh discusses the research with radio host Geoffrey Riley.

Research by Stanford Earth professors Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke shows climate change is driving the wealth gap in more ways than we think.

Climate change has different effects on the economies of cold and warm countries. A new study by Stanford scientists finds it has already made poor warm countries substantially more poor.

Computing a precise social cost of carbon could help us decide how much to invest and which problems to tackle first. Research led by Marshall Burke on the dollar value of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is cited.

It's been well-documented that low-income communities bear the brunt of many climate change-related horrors. Now research from Stanford shows which countries win and which lose out as a result of global warming.

"Researchers and policy makers have been saying for many years that the greatest, most acute impacts of global warming are falling on populations least responsible for creating that global warming," says Noah Diffenbaugh. "We have quantified the effect."

Global warming's effects reach beyond the natural world. New research shows climate change has slowed progress toward narrowing the economic gap between the world’s richest and poorest nations.
 

Stanford Earth researchers have quantified the economic impact of climate change over half a century, revealing the extent to which global warming has made poor countries poorer and rich countries richer.

Global warming has already created winners and losers across the world, with poorer, tropical nations suffering the most even though they contributed far less to the problem, a study from Stanford Earth finds.

Climate change has already created a sobering patchwork of economic inequality across the globe, according to Stanford researchers Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh.

Numerous studies have predicted that poor nations will suffer the greatest devastation from climate change. A new analysis by Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke finds it’s already been happening for decades.

A rising tide may lift all boats. But when it comes to economic prosperity, the same can't be said for rising temperatures. That's the conclusion of a new study by Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke.

Soaring temperatures have enriched cooler, wealthier countries while dragging down economic growth in warmer nations, according to a new study by Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh.

The gap between the economic output of the world’s richest and poorest countries is 25 percent larger today than it would have been without global warming, according to new research from Stanford University.

What will life be like after we've solved climate change? Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh and Chris Field comment. "Every single proposed solution will simultaneously improve life and decrease carbon emissions."

Scientists have long predicted that warmer temperatures caused by climate change will have the biggest impact on the world’s poorest, most vulnerable people. New research indicates that’s already happened.

Stanford researchers say warmer temperatures are widening the chasm separating richer and poorer countries, effectively boosting the economies of many wealthy polluters while dampening growth in much of the developing world. 

New research by Stanford Earth's Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh shows that global warming has already imposed an economic penalty on many countries.

Climate change is having a serious impact on economic growth across the world – and it's worse for poor countries that already had a lot of catching up to do, according to a new study.

Climate change creates winners and losers. Norway is among the winners; Nigeria among the losers. Those are the stark findings of a peer-reviewed paper by Stanford professors Marshall Burke and Noah Diffenbaugh.

Rosamond Naylor, Noah Diffenbaugh, Scott Fendorf, and others are featured in this collection of research funded by seed grants, which are often used to try out risky, early-stage ideas.

“No one country can stabilize the global temperature just by stabilizing its emissions,” says Stanford Earth professor Noah Diffenbaugh. "This is why climate policy presents some clear challenges."

"With respect to tornadoes, we have limitations both in the observational record and in our modeling capabilities," says Noah Diffenbaugh. Researchers are now closing those gaps, thanks to radar observations of tornadoes over the past couple decades.

Climate change has already altered California's climate, says Noah Diffenbaugh. "The state needs to address questions about an aging water infrastructure built for snow ... instead of the rain we will see in the future."

Stanford atmospheric scientist Noah Diffenbaugh joins climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe for a conversation about communicating climate change in transparent, engaging and accessible ways.

“I don’t see a sufficient reduction of winds to override the wildfire risks from warming,” says Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh. “It’s clear that the warming itself has already substantially increased wildfire risk.”

“We’re now in a climate where what used to be average appears to be a lot. That tells us something about what we've been dealing with recently in California,” says Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford Earth.

Recent droughts across the West have squeezed hydroelectric facilities and hampered efforts to reduce greenhouse gas pollution, according to a new study from Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh and Julio Herrera-Estrada.

One of the main ways California is experiencing the effects of climate change is through severe droughts. Now new research from Stanford Earth suggests those droughts are also contributing to climate change.

Recent droughts caused increases in emissions from power generation in several western states as fossil fuels came online to replace hampered hydroelectric power. A new study quantifies the impact.

Research from Noah Diffenbaugh and Julio Herrera-Estrada finds drought-driven emissions accounted for around 10 percent of CO₂ output from the power sector in several Western states between 2001 and 2015.

Droughts do more than just dry up our lawns, orchards, pastures and ski slopes. A Stanford study reveals a hidden impact of low water: worse air pollution, as we shift from hydropower to fossil fuels.

Droughts have long been known to place pressure on agriculture and water supplies, but they can also lead to increased carbon dioxide emissions, according to a study from Stanford Earth scientists.

Low river flows in the western U.S. drastically hampered the amount of carbon-free electricity that could be produced by the thousands of hydroelectric power plants across the West, a study from Stanford Earth shows.

Stanford researchers along with scholars across the country find the evidence for greenhouse gases endangering human health and welfare is even more significant than previously thought.

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh comments on a new study that suggests rising temperatures will increase the frequency of strong El Niño events, which often bring pummeling rains across the state.

Scientists have warned that many regions around the world may see more hot, dry conditions as climate change reshapes the planet. Now, a study from Noah Diffenbaugh actually quantifies the risk.

New research from Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh shows the chance of having years that are both extremely warm and extremely dry has doubled around the globe since 1931.

Odds are rising that warm, dry conditions – the kind that can hurt crop yields, destabilize food prices and exacerbate wildfires – will strike multiple regions at once. A new Stanford study shows just how much the risk is increasing.

A new Stanford study says hot and dry conditions will increasingly hit multiple regions at the same time – shrinking crop yields, destabilizing food prices and laying the groundwork for large wildfires.

Climate change has doubled the odds that a region will suffer the brutal combination of hot and dry weather at the same time, according to a study from Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford Earth.  

California’s wildfires have destroyed homes and communities, and even people hundreds of miles away are feeling the effects of smoke. Stanford faculty weigh in on the health effects and increasing frequency of fires.

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh explains the connections between climate change and wildfire risk – and why failure to recognize that risk is extremely dangerous for California.

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh explains how human activity is making wildfires more frequent and more severe as a guest on NPR's 1A.

Research led by Stanford Earth scientists shows that, contrary to the picture painted by President Trump on "60 minutes," not doing anything about climate change could cost trillions of dollars. 

Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford Earth helps to explain why the existence of past cool periods – including the Ice Age – aren’t evidence the current warming trend is illusory.

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh describes his research showing that, relative to the eventual economic damage of not acting aggressively enough to protect the planet in the future, it would cost much less to make changes now.

Stanford Earth's Noah Diffenbaugh explains how scientists are able to connect the dots between hurricanes and climate change more directly now than ever before.

Stanford Earth faculty members Dustin Schroeder, Kate Maher, Noah Diffenbaugh, and Nicole Ardoin are among the inaugural cohort of a fellowship program for outstanding environmental researchers.

Stanford scientists found that the global economy is likely to benefit from ambitious global warming limits agreed to in the United Nations Paris Agreement.

Earth System Science professor Noah Diffenbaugh comments on his research on temperatures across North America, where upward swings in winter temperatures in the west correspond with icy drops to the east.

Earth System Science professor Noah Diffenbaugh writes about the impact of climate change on extreme weather events like Hurricane Harvey in an Op Ed for The New York Times.

Stanford Earth climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh comments on new research on how climate change is impacting California's weather patterns.

If asked to imagine a geologist, you might envision a tanned and dusty figure, hardy and weathered like the ancient rocks that he or she spends days studying out “in the field."

The president announced that the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Four Stanford scholars discuss the implications of this decision.

Studying how and why bridges have collapsed in the past identifies the limitation of current risk assessment approach and demonstrates the value of new perspectives on climate change impact.

A new four-step framework aims to test the contribution of climate change to record-setting extreme weather events.

Stanford climatologist Noah Diffenbaugh explains why heavy rains during a drought are to be expected for a state in the throes of climate change.

As workers rush to repair the spillway at California’s Oroville Dam, Stanford researchers comment on how challenges like climate change and aging infrastructure heighten risks for California.

A new study finds transmission of West Nile virus is higher in drought years, but after large outbreaks acquired immunity limits the size of subsequent epidemics.