The science behind the West Coast fires

A study led by Stanford scientists shows autumn days with extreme fire weather have more than doubled in California since the early 1980s due to climate change.

The new normal for Western wildfires is abnormal, with increasingly bigger and more destructive blazes.

Stanford climate and wildfire experts discuss extreme weather’s role in current and future wildfires, as well as ways to combat the trend toward bigger, more intense conflagrations.

Immune markers and pollutant levels in the blood indicate wildfire smoke may be more harmful to children’s health than smoke from a controlled burn.

What does smoke inhalation do to my health? What’s the evidence that these are caused by climate change? Here is how some Stanford experts answer and continue to tackle these complex concerns.

California’s massive wildfires bring a host of health concerns for vulnerable populations, firefighters and others. Kari Nadeau and Mary Prunicki of Stanford’s Sean N. Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research discuss related threats, preparedness and ongoing research.

"Only certain masks are effective during wildfires, while a range of face coverings may help prevent coronavirus transmission," Stanford researchers write in Environmental Research Letters. Drawing on human behavior studies and past responses to epidemics and wildfire smoke, the scientists recommend ways to communicate mask-use guidance more effectively.

As wildfires become more frequent due to climate change, the increasing amounts of smoke may harm Americans nearly as much as rising temperatures, according to a working paper by Stanford environmental economist Marshall Burke and colleagues. “We hadn’t even thought of that as a key part of the climate impact in this country,” Burke told Bloomberg.

Marshall Burke, an economist at Stanford, has found that, across California, as the number of smoke days has risen over the past 15 years, it has begun to reverse some of the gains that the state had made in cleaning up its air from conventional sources of pollution.

Wildfire smoke will be one of the most widely felt health impacts of climate change throughout the country, but U.S. clean air regulations are not equipped to deal with it. Stanford experts discuss the causes and impacts of wildfire activity and its rapid acceleration in the American West.

Warnings of another severe wildfire season abound, as do efforts to reduce the risk of ignition. Yet few are taking precautions against the smoke. Stanford experts advise on contending with hazardous air quality.

Smoke from wildfires – particularly those that burn manmade structures – can significantly increase the amount of hazardous toxic metals present in the air, sending up plumes that can travel for miles, a new study from the California Air Resources Board has suggested. "No one is protected," said Mary Prunicki of Stanford’s Sean N. Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research.

Analysis by Stanford researchers suggests California needs fuel treatments – whether prescribed burns or vegetation thinning – on about 20 million acres or nearly 20 percent of the state’s land area.

Scientists and engineers worked with state and local agencies to develop and test a long-lasting, environmentally benign fire-retarding material. If used on high-risk areas, the treatment could dramatically cut the number of fires that occur each year.

Experts with Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment discuss strategies for managing wildfire risks, including incentive structures, regulations, partnerships and financing.

"In talking about risks and policy prescriptions, we need to separate out wildfires at the wildland-urban interface – those that put people and communities at most risk – from fires that historically have burned through our remote forestlands," said Deborah Sivas, Director of Stanford’s Environmental Law Clinic. 

"Successful wildfire preparedness begins with a clear strategy and accountability for outcomes," writes Michael Wara, director of the Climate and Energy Policy Program at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment.

"As fires burn with greater magnitude and frequency, the cost of fighting them is increasingly borne by money earmarked for prevention," writes Bill Lane Center for the American West writer in residence Felicity Barringer.

Stanford researchers have developed a deep-learning model that maps fuel moisture levels in fine detail across 12 western states, opening a door for better fire predictions.

Engineers at Stanford have used X-ray CT scans, more common in hospital labs, to study how wood catches fire. They’ve now turned that knowledge into a computer simulation to predict where fires will strike and spread.